Problem definition
What is the daily time required to create my weekly Blog. I have learned by experience that the best time is 30 min daily, although the longest time I spent is 120 min per day, but most likely I can complete the blog in 90min daily. To determine the suitable time needed to do a quality blog, here I consider the best case worst case, most likely scenario to get an answer.
Development of the feasible alternatives
I was spending more or less between the following durations:
A. 45min
B. 90min
C. 120min
Analysis and comparison of the alternatives
| Best Case | Worst Case | Most likely | |
| Average | 45 min | 120 min | 90 min |
First: Calculation of the Pert duration:
(Optimistic Dur + 4* Most likely + Pessimistic Dur) / 6
The Mean Duration is = (45+4*90+120) / 6 = 525/6 = 87 min
Second: Calculation of the Standard Deviation and the Variance
120 (Pessimistic) – (Optimistic) 45 = 75 min
Sigma = 75/6 = 12.5
Variance = (12.5)² = 156.25
Selection of the preferred alternatives
As per the best case worst case, most likely scenario graph shown above, taking a percentage of 90% as the most likely case, I shall spent not less than 110 min on daily basis to do a quality blog.
Performance monitoring and the post evaluation of results
Spending an average of 110 min is facilitating my W3, since it was issue in short time and good quality. comparing with W1 & W2 blogs.
Conclusion
The time needed for creating and developing a good blog is vary depend on the topic and the time should be spent on daily basis, taking my case I found that it’s better to spent not less than 110min daily as to get my blog done on the exact target date.
References
* AACE certification Preparation Course 2011, Day2 P 64/105, Dr. Paul D. Giammalvo.
kristal2011aace 
Excellent, Mohammad!!! Thrilled to see you using the tools and techniques for real life applications- that is EXACTLY what this course is all about. Learn to UNDERSTAND how to use these tools and techniques and you can answer ANY question on any exam!!!
Now, seeing how you are on this topic, I am going to challenge you to take your analysis one step further for your W5 blog posting topic…….
Turn to pages 86-89 in your Engineering Economy and what I’d like to see is by applying LEARNING CURVE THEORY, what are your calculations to explain that if you allow 110 minutes for your blog posting now, how long do you predict it will take you for your W10? W20? W30 blog posting?
Another interesting analysis (W6?) would be to compare your ACTUAL productivity vs your PLANNED productivity? How many dollars did you budget for your blog each week? If you stick with the 110 minutes average, how does that impact your BUDGET for this project? If you adjust for learning curve, was your estimate a good one or not? Does it fall within the targeted parameters? If not, what should you do about it?
Keep up the good work, Mohammad!! You are definitely on the right track, “leading by example”. but now you need to mentor others, like Deny, who is clearly struggling….. As a leader, you cannot leave the weaker members behind….. They may be weak in this task, but might end up helping you on some other task…..
Wassalam!!!
BR,
Dr. PDG, Jakarta
PS: Mohammad, did you mean 110 minutes per DAY or 110 minutes TOTAL per blog posting? What is the TOTAL TIME for each blog posting? Compare that against your BCWS…… Is your PRODUCTIVITY better or worse than estimated?